Karamysheva

Madina

Assistant Professor in Economics and Finance

mkaramysheva@hse.ru

ABOUT

Welcome to my website.

I am an Assistant Professor in Economics and Finance at National Research University Higher School of Economics. My broad research interests include macrofinance, fiscal policy, financial econometrics and banking.

Growing with the high pace government debt of the most reach economies as well as debates about fiscal consolidation and austerity attract my attention. In particular my research stands on the crossroads of several literature streams. The first stream focuses on the role of uncertainty, risk, confidence on the real economy, the second one concentrate on the effects of policy on the economy and its growth. I place myself in between of two. My job market paper investigates potential channels such as uncertainty, risk, and sentiment to explain the heterogeneous output effects of fiscal adjustments.

I've got my PhD in Bocconi University, Milan, Italy. Prior to attending Bocconi University, I received B.S. and M.S. degree in Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Mechanics from Voronezh State University (Russia)


RESEARCH

JOB MARKET PAPER
“Can Uncertainty Explain the Heterogeneous Output Effects of Fiscal Adjustments?”
Authors: Karamysheva Madina

Recent empirical evidence suggests that fiscal consolidations mainly based on tax hikes have a more recessionary impact on economic growth relative to those based on expenditure cuts. In this paper I evaluate the output effects of fiscal adjustment plans identified through the narrative approach. Plans are different from shocks that are usually considered in the literature, since fiscal plans track more closely the dynamics of fiscal policy. I incorporate fiscal plans into a vector autoregression model to investigate the channels of transmission of fiscal consolidations. In addition to a direct effect of fiscal adjustment plans on output I explore two indirect effects. In particular, I investigate whether monetary policy or uncertainty could explain the heterogeneous output effects of fiscal adjustment plans. The evidence indicates that uncertainty increases following tax-based fiscal plans and decreases following expenditure-based fiscal plans. Monetary policy cannot fully explain this difference. By closing the monetary policy and uncertainty channels, first, one at a time and then both together, I measure how much of difference in output effects of fiscal adjustment plans is due to each particular channel. Finally, I investigate whether my empirical results are consistent with the simulation of a general equilibrium model.

WORKING PAPER
"What do we know about fiscal multipliers?"
Authors: Favero Carlo Ambrogio, Karamysheva Madina

The Empirical Evidence on fiscal multipliers is very heterogeneous. In this paper we first survey available estimates of fiscal multipliers to try to understand their heterogeneity. We provide a general framework that allows making the identification and specification choices made by the different authors explicit and leads hopefully to a better understanding of the heterogeneity of results.

WORKING PAPER
"The Measurement of the Output Effect of Fiscal Adjustments"
Authors: Favero Carlo Ambrogio, Karamysheva Madina

Fiscal policy is implemented through multi-year plans that involve an intertemporal dimension (to capture anticipated vs. unanticipated components) and an intratemporal one (to cover both expenditure and revenue side). We argue that the analysis of the dynamic impact of fiscal policy shocks neglects the fact that fiscal policy is conducted throughout multi-year plans. And by ignoring the intertemporal dimension, one disregards the fact that agents are aware of future, but not yet realized fiscal adjustments. While by ignoring the intratemporal dimension one fails to capture the composition of the plan. The paper addresses the important question of plans' simulation from the econometric prospective. We propose an econometric specification, which extends the simple truncated MA representation and takes into account the intertemporal and the intratemporal correlations.

WORK IN PROGRESS
"Credit default interdependencies across sectors: evidence from CDS market"
Authors: Karamysheva Madina, Giovanni Walter Puopolo

The goal of our project is to investigate the feedback-effect on the CDS prices, and more precisely, to identify the equilibrium decomposition of such prices. The price of a CDS can be decomposed as the sum of two terms: a "sector-specific" component, which is the resulting price in the absence of any loop among the sectors, and an extra term, which captures the feedback-effect.




EDUCATION

PhD in Economics and Finance
Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

2016

Master of Science in Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
Voronezh State University, Russia

2009

Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
Voronezh State University, Russia

2007




TEACHING

Internation Finance(Master's programme), HSE, Moscow

2016 - present


Research Seminar "Empirical Corporate Finance" (Master's programme), HSE, Moscow

2016 - present


Teaching Assistant for the course: “Principles of International Finance”
Professor Per Linus Siming, Bocconi University, Milan

2011 – 2016


Teaching Assistant for the course: “Advanced Econometrics”
Professor Luca Sala, Bocconi University, Milan

2013 – 2014


Teaching Assistant for the course: “Theory of Finance”
Professor Claudio Tebaldi, Bocconi University, Milan

2013 – 2014


Teaching Assistant for the course: “Corporate finance”
Professor Hannes Wagner, Bocconi University, Milan

2012 – 2013


Research Assistant for the project “The Output Effect of Fiscal Adjustment Plans”
Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi

02/2013 – 04/2013


CONTACT

Email
mkaramysheva@hse.ru

Address
Moscow, Shabolovka st. 26, office 4319
119049, Russia

Phone
Office: +7 (495) 772-9590*26012

2017